About
How I build, how I think, and what this site deliberately leaves out.
- I start from first principles. If the reasoning does not hold from the ground up, the conclusion does not hold.
- I change my mind when the evidence does, on the pattern rather than every signal.
- I look for what the data is missing. The absence of evidence is where I start reading.
- I watch for coordination failures, situations where everyone does the individually rational thing and the group outcome is bad. Most product problems I have debugged turned out to be that.
- The most important data point is the one that never arrived.
- If a feature I prioritised P0 ships and nobody who asked for it uses it, the demand-driven framework was reading the wrong signal, and the framework is what I fix.
- If a coordination failure I diagnosed turns out to be a plain execution gap once I look closer, I revise the diagnosis, not the story.
- If the pattern across three release cycles contradicts the pattern I called after one, the one call was noise.
- If an edge case mapped before a build still slips into production, the mapping process has a hole, not the engineer who missed it.
The ring stays empty on purpose.
- Employer and client names. I reference them by scale and sector instead.
- Numbers I can't back up. Everything quoted here can be checked.
- The next chapter. The route ends at now.
The mark is a return flight.
In 1943, the US military mapped the bullet holes on bombers returning from Europe, wanting to armour the places hit most. The statistician Abraham Wald turned that inside out: the planes that came back survived those hits, that's why they were visible. Armour instead went where there were no holes, because planes hit there never made it home.
The mark draws that inversion directly: a top-view plane, seven amber hits on the wings and tail, and a dashed ring at the nose, drawn around nothing. The data in front of you is the data that survived: the empty ring is the whole argument.
Wald's actual method, and why the famous bullet-hole diagram is a reconstruction rather than his data, is shelved in the Reading Room.
every book I own, with a line on each, is in the library →